George W. Bush is going down this Fall. Well...at least if Kerry is smart enough to put together a campaign strategy based on statistical analysis. Bush is very vulnerable but not in the ways Kerry seems to think.

    Kerry already has the votes of progressives such as myself. We're all motivated to remove Bush. He doesn't need to do too much to mobilize his base. We'd vote for Kerry no matter what. Anyone but Bush is our mantra. On the other hand, I don't think Republicans are as keen on Bush as Democrats are keen on getting rid of Bush. As long as Kerry doesn't seem scary to them, Bush is vulnerable.

    So...how do you get Republicans to not come out for Bush? Let me count the ways.

1) The deficit. Republicans claim to care about fiscal responsibility. But Bush has let spending go out of control. He has both houses in congress so no Reaganesque blaming of those big spending liberals this time. Bush is a big spender. Talk about the pork and out of control spending that our grandchildren are going to have to pay for.

2) Bush's prescription drug program. Point out that Bush isn't for smaller government. He's for inept corporate controlled government. Talk about how he's in favor of helping seniors but as Americans right now we need to come together and get that debt down and then come up with a sensible way to help assure affordable healthcare for all Americans.

3) Talk about how Bush hasn't been honest about his tax cuts. Point out that the top 25 families (not percent) actually received a huge chunk of that tax cut. How does that help America? Tax cuts are fine when you're not running massive deficits and you're not at war.

4) Hit hard about personal responsibility. Bush isn't resolute, he's obtuse. We need leaders that recognize mistakes and make changes. Everyone knows we need more troops in Iraq. Make a big point about as President, I would send more troops in Iraq so that we can quickly establish a secure Democratic Iraq and then take them out to be replaced by International peace keepers and the Iraqi's themselves. Make it clear that ultimately it will be up to the Iraqi's to determine whether they sink or swim. We're not going to do it for them for the next decade in some sort of Vietnam scenario.

5) Really focus on the outsourcing of jobs. America is losing vast parts of its industrial output. Bush talks about this war on terror even as the United States increasingly is becoming incapable of providing for itself in the terms of industrial might or even the raw materials because Bush's policies reward companies for sending jobs to China and India.

    Pick on these 5 points and you'll soften up Bush's base to lower turn out for his side.